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Probability for epistemic modalities
Goldstein, Simon Santorio, Paolo
Goldstein, Simon
Santorio, Paolo
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Abstract
This paper develops an information-sensitive theory of the semantics and probability of conditionals and statements involving epistemic modals. The theory validates a number of principles linking probability and modality, including the principle that the probability of a conditional If A, then C equals the probability of C, updated with A. The theory avoids so-called triviality results, which are standardly taken to show that principles of this sort cannot be validated. To achieve this, we deny that rational agents update their credences via conditionalization. We offer a new rule of update, Hyperconditionalization, which agrees with Conditionalization whenever nonmodal statements are at stake but differs for modal and conditional sentences.
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Date
2021
Type
Journal article
Journal
Philosophers' Imprint
Book
Volume
21
Issue
33
Page Range
1-37
Article Number
ACU Department
Dianoia Institute of Philosophy
Faculty of Theology and Philosophy
Faculty of Theology and Philosophy
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Open Access Status
Open access
License
CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
File Access
Open